Weekly Market Outlook · October 31
Nifty Gains 2% as Jio Lists at a Premium, Reliance Profit Jumps and the Fed Holds
October 31, 2026 · 12 min read · Updated October 31, 2026
Nifty closed the week at 23,053, up about 2% and back above 23,000, recovering the previous week's fall. The week had a lot going for it: Jio Platforms listed at a premium and became India's second most valuable listed company, Reliance reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit, the Fed held rates, crude eased from its peak, IT stocks rebounded, and foreign selling eased while domestic investors kept buying. Six stories, each with its own investor lens.
Why did the market bounce this week? Three things eased at once. The Fed did not add to the worry by hiking, oil came off its highs from Tuesday, and domestic and foreign money both showed up on dips. Hopes of a change in capital gains tax added to the mood on Thursday. The index is still about 0.4% below its October 16 close of 23,146.15, so this is a recovery, not a breakout, and oil and geopolitics remain the risks to watch.
The Week at a Glance
15 Highlights
- Nifty closes at 23,053.10, up about 2.0% for the week, and Sensex at 74,459.53, up about 1.8%
- Jio Platforms lists on October 28 at Rs 1,358, a 21.4% premium, and closes near Rs 1,419
- Jio becomes India's second most valuable listed company at about Rs 13 lakh crore
- Reliance reports Q2 profit of about Rs 29,250 crore, up roughly 27%, on revenue up about 28%
- Reliance's oil to chemicals EBITDA rises about 68%, while retail EBITDA falls about 8.6%
- The Fed holds rates in a reported 10 to 2 vote, with two members preferring a hike
- L&T profit rises 26.2% and the stock gains nearly 4%; Bajaj Auto profit rises 61.9%
- Nifty IT gains 2.3% on Friday and Infosys 3.4% after US IT company results
- Foreign investors net buy about Rs 2,706 crore across October 26 to 29, and domestic investors buy about Rs 3,927 crore
- Hopes of a long term capital gains tax cut support Thursday's 1.05% gain
- Brent peaks near $116 on Tuesday, eases to about $110 on Thursday and ends near $113
- On Wall Street, the S&P 500 falls 0.6%, the Nasdaq 2% and the Dow 0.9% for the week
- Nifty Smallcap index rises about 4% for the week, recovering the previous week's 7% fall
- Rupee holds near 95 per dollar and RBI's repo rate stays at 5.50%
- Next week: PMI data, US midterm elections on November 3, Bank of England on November 5, US jobs report on November 6
Market Snapshot
| Nifty 50 (Oct 30) | 23,053.10 |
| Sensex (Oct 30) | 74,459.53 |
| Nifty (week) | +2.0% |
| Sensex (week) | +1.8% |
| Nifty Midcap 100 (Fri) | Down 0.93% |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 (Fri) | Down 1.85% |
| RBI Repo Rate | 5.50% |
| India CPI (Sep) | 5.54% |
| Brent Crude (Fri) | ~$113 |
| USD/INR (Fri) | ~95 |
| Gold MCX Dec (Fri) | Rs 1,41,658 |
| FII (Oct 26 to 29) | +Rs 2,706 Cr |
| DII (Oct 26 to 29) | +Rs 3,927 Cr |
| S&P 500 (week) | Down 0.6% |
Index levels are closing values for Friday, October 30. Weekly changes are measured from the previous Friday's close of 22,600.00 for Nifty and 73,123.83 for Sensex. Flow figures are provisional exchange data for October 26 to 29, and Friday's were not yet available. The rupee level varied slightly by source, between about 94.9 and 95.0. Monday's Nifty close is derived from Tuesday's reported change.
1. Nifty Regains 23,000 With a 2% Weekly Gain
Nifty 50 ended Friday at 23,053.10, up 116.35 points or 0.51%, its second straight gain, and the Sensex at 74,459.53, up 308.49 points. For the week, Nifty gained about 453 points, or 2.0%, and the Sensex about 1,336 points, or 1.8%. The Nifty Smallcap index rose about 4% for the week, and Nifty Pharma was among the strongest sectors. Friday's breadth was narrower than the headline: IT led, banks were subdued, and the Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 fell 0.93% and 1.85%.
| Session | Nifty 50 close | Change | What moved the market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 26 | 22,753.20 | Up 0.68% | Rebound from the previous week's fall; foreign investors sell about Rs 1,462 Cr |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 22,749.75 | Down 0.02% | Flat on expiry day; midcaps up about 1%, smallcaps about 2.7%; Brent near $116; foreign investors buy about Rs 4,240 Cr |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 22,698.85 | Down 0.22% | Jio lists at a 21% premium; IT and Reliance fall while L&T gains nearly 4%; Fed decision after the close |
| Thu, Oct 29 | 22,936.75 | Up 1.05% | Fed holds rates; hopes of an LTCG tax cut; PSU banks up 2.2%, realty up 2.75%; Brent eases to about $110 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 23,053.10 | Up 0.51% | Nifty back above 23,000; IT up 2.3% after US results; midcaps down 0.9%, smallcaps down 1.9%; Brent about $113 |
Two weeks ago Nifty closed at 23,146.15, so the last two weeks net out to a fall of about 0.4%. The index has reclaimed 23,000, and the recent lows sit near 22,370, set on October 12 and October 23. It remains about 12% below its September 2024 closing high of about 26,179, which is a reminder that a good week is a small part of a long journey.
Investor Lens: After a rebound, the natural urge is to wait for a better entry or to rush in. Neither is a plan. If your goals are five or more years away, continue your SIPs, and review your allocation on a schedule. Our piece on fear, greed and Nifty valuations sets out how to think about this without trying to call the bottom.
3. Q2 Results: Reliance, L&T and Autos Lead, Retail Lags
Reliance Industries reported on Friday. Consolidated net profit came in at about Rs 29,250 crore, up roughly 27% from Rs 23,001 crore a year ago, on revenue of about Rs 3.62 lakh crore, up about 28%. The oil to chemicals business did the heavy lifting, with higher fuel margins lifting its EBITDA by about 68%. Jio's revenue rose about 11% and its EBITDA about 17%, with margins up about 2.5 percentage points. The weak spot was retail, where revenue rose 6.4% but EBITDA fell about 8.6%, as the company pointed to digital commerce spending, higher input costs and some festive demand moving into the next quarter.
| Company | Net profit | Revenue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | Rs 29,250 Cr, up about 27% | Rs 3.62 lakh Cr, up about 28% | Oil to chemicals EBITDA up about 68%; retail EBITDA down about 8.6% |
| Larsen & Toubro | Rs 5,915 Cr, up 26.2% | Rs 78,750 Cr, up 16.0% | Stock rose nearly 4% on the day after results |
| Bajaj Auto | Rs 3,436 Cr, up 61.9% | Rs 25,126 Cr, up 59.7% | Strong growth on both lines |
| Maruti Suzuki | Rs 2,466 Cr, down 26.0% | Rs 53,356 Cr, up 26.0% | Revenue grew while profit fell, so check the cost detail |
| Tata Capital | Rs 1,660 Cr, up 51.3% | Rs 9,342 Cr, up 20.7% | Lender with strong growth on both lines |
Figures are from secondary recaps of the results and some headline numbers differ between reports, so please verify them against the company filings. Reliance's reported EBITDA total was inconsistent across the reports we saw, so we have left it out.
IT stocks recovered on Friday after US company results, with Nifty IT up 2.3%, Infosys up 3.4% and Wipro and Coforge up more than 4% each. Trent rose more than 5% on revenue growth, and IndiGo gained 4.3% on a narrower quarterly loss. On the other side, Suzlon fell nearly 8% after a guidance cut, and Equitas Small Finance Bank dropped more than 6% on reports that its MD and CEO had resigned. Brokerages expected Nifty 50 profit to grow strongly this quarter, and the numbers so far, from Reliance to L&T and Bajaj Auto, fit that picture, although Maruti's profit fell 26% despite higher revenue.
Investor Lens: Strong index level earnings still hide company level surprises, as Maruti and Suzlon show. Look at why profit moved and at guidance, not only the headline. Our results season guide explains the checks, and a diversified fund absorbs one company's miss far better than a single stock does.
4. The Fed Holds, Oil Eases and Wall Street Wobbles
The US Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday, after raising them by 25 basis points in September, its first hike in about three years. Reports said the vote was 10 to 2, with two members preferring another hike, and that futures markets priced a high chance of a hike in December. The US economy looks strong, with third quarter growth reported at 3.4%, but inflation is still well above target, so the path of rates remains open. The hold itself was welcomed in India, and the market rose on Thursday.
Oil was the other swing factor. Brent touched about $116 on Tuesday, near a six month high, on attacks on Saudi Arabia, eased to about $110 on Thursday as diplomatic talks resumed, and ended the week near $113. Wall Street was weaker on the week as big technology stocks fell: the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, the Nasdaq 2% and the Dow 0.9%, with Alphabet down about 12% after results and AI spending worries. US stock futures pointed lower on Friday as well, yet the Nifty held its gains, a sign of domestic support.
Investor Lens: India has little direct exposure to AI chip valuations, but it feels oil and global risk appetite. A fall in Wall Street tech tends to fade for India, while a long period of high crude does not. Check how much of your portfolio depends on a single theme, whether global technology or domestic IT, so that one shock does not decide your outcome.
5. Flows Improve and Hopes of a Tax Change Build
Foreign investors were net buyers of about Rs 2,706 crore across the four sessions from Monday to Thursday, against net buying of about Rs 3,927 crore by domestic institutions, according to provisional exchange data. Tuesday stood out, with foreign buying of about Rs 4,240 crore. The longer picture is still heavy: for October to date, foreign investors have sold about Rs 48,760 crore and domestic institutions have bought about Rs 63,038 crore, and foreign selling in 2026 has reached a record. Analysts say a lasting recovery needs lower crude and an end to heavy foreign selling.
Thursday's rally also carried hopes that the government may ease long term capital gains tax ahead of Budget 2027, a debate centred on foreign investors. No decision has been announced, and a review is not a change in the law. For Indian investors, the practical point is that tax rules can change at a Budget, so it is worth knowing how your gains are taxed today and planning redemptions around goals, not around guesses about tax.
Investor Lens: Flows explain short term moves, but they do not decide whether your plan works. Domestic SIP money has been a steady buyer for months, which is one reason falls have been shallower than foreign selling alone would suggest. Keep your SIPs going, and avoid planning around tax changes that may never come.
6. The Week Ahead: PMIs, US Elections and the Jobs Report
Next week is lighter on Indian policy and heavier on global events. India's final PMI readings come on Monday and Wednesday, following the strong flash reading last week. The US votes in its midterm elections on Tuesday, and the Bank of England meets on Thursday, with a hike widely expected. The week ends with the US jobs report. Quarterly results from Indian companies continue, and Reliance's results will be digested.
| Date | What to watch |
|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 2 | Final India manufacturing PMI (October flash was 54.9); US ISM manufacturing PMI |
| Tue, Nov 3 | US midterm elections; Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision |
| Wed, Nov 4 | Final India services PMI; US ISM services PMI |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Bank of England rate decision |
| Fri, Nov 6 | US October jobs report (consensus about +55,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%); India forex reserves, last at $721.02 billion |
| All week | More Q2 results from Indian companies; Apple, Palantir and AMD report in the US |
| Dec 2 to 4 | Next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting |
| Dec 9 | Fed decision after its December meeting |
Investor Lens: A busy calendar can make every headline feel urgent, but a well built plan does not need to change with each one. Keep SIPs running, hold your emergency fund in safe assets, and avoid borrowing to invest. Our guide to not reacting to market moves is a good companion this week.
The Week Ahead
Where This Leaves Us
A 2% week after a 2.4% fall nets out to roughly flat, and that is the right way to read it. The positives are real: earnings are growing, Reliance and L&T reported strongly, Jio's listing showed how much capital wants to be in Indian companies, the Fed paused, and domestic investors keep buying. Oil, foreign selling and a busy global calendar remain the risks. That mix argues for patience and structure, not for guessing short term moves. Review your allocation, stagger new money, and read our goal based planning guide and rebalancing and fund overlap piece for how to do it calmly. Keep SIPs running through the noise.
Quick Questions
How did the Jio Platforms share price perform on listing day?
Jio Platforms listed on October 28, 2026 at Rs 1,358 on both NSE and BSE, a premium of about 21.4% to the issue price of Rs 1,119. It closed the day at about Rs 1,419 on NSE, roughly 27% above the issue price, giving the company a market value of around Rs 13 lakh crore and making it the second most valuable listed Indian company after Reliance Industries. Listing day gains do not predict later returns, and prices move every day.
Why did the Nifty rise about 2% this week?
Nifty 50 closed at 23,053.10 on October 30, 2026, up about 2.0% from 22,600 a week earlier, and back above 23,000. Reports pointed to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, hopes of a cut in long term capital gains tax, buying by foreign investors on several days, a rebound in IT stocks after US company results, and crude oil easing from its peak of about $116. Banks were subdued on Friday, and midcaps and smallcaps fell on the last day of the week.
What did the US Fed decide on October 28, 2026?
The Fed held its policy rate steady after raising it by 25 basis points in September, its first hike in about three years, to a range reported as 3.75% to 4.00%. Reports said the vote was 10 to 2, with two members preferring another 25 basis point hike, and that futures markets priced a high chance of a hike on December 9. Policy expectations can change quickly with each inflation and jobs report.
What were Reliance Industries' Q2 FY27 results?
As reported on October 30, 2026, Reliance posted consolidated net profit of about Rs 29,250 crore, up roughly 27% year on year, on revenue of about Rs 3.62 lakh crore, up about 28%. The oil to chemicals business drove the gain, with EBITDA up about 68%, while the retail business reported lower EBITDA, down about 8.6%, on higher costs and festive demand shifting into the next quarter. Figures come from secondary summaries, so please check them against the company's filing.
Is the government cutting long term capital gains tax?
No cut has been announced. Reports say the government is reviewing long term capital gains tax and securities transaction tax ahead of Budget 2027, with the debate centred on foreign investors after record outflows from Indian equities in 2026. Hopes of a change helped sentiment on Thursday, but a review is not a decision. Tax rules apply as they stand today until Parliament changes them.
Are foreign investors still selling Indian shares?
Selling has eased and turned choppy. Exchange data show foreign institutional investors were net buyers of about Rs 2,706 crore across October 26 to 29, 2026, with a large buying day on October 27, while domestic institutions bought about Rs 3,927 crore. For October to date, foreign investors are still net sellers of about Rs 48,760 crore and domestic institutions net buyers of about Rs 63,038 crore. Friday's figures were not yet available.
Should SIP investors do anything differently after a 2% rally?
For long term goals, the usual answer is to keep SIPs running and review your allocation once or twice a year instead of reacting to one good or bad week. A rally does not make a plan better or worse, and the market fell about 2.4% only a week earlier. Money needed within three to five years should not depend on equity markets. This is general guidance, not personal advice, and a financial planner can check how it applies to you.
This digest is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risk. Please read all scheme related documents carefully before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Economic data, policy decisions, company results and listing details discussed above are sourced from public reporting as available at the time of writing, some of it provisional or from secondary summaries, and are illustrative, not a forecast or a guarantee of future returns. Companies are named only as examples of reported news. SampadaSarathi (Inderpreet Singh) is an AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-357884) and an IRDAI-licensed POSP (Life: POSPL74320, Non-Life/Health: POSPN74320) operating through NJ Insurance Brokers Private Limited. For grievance redressal, refer to AMFI or SEBI SCORES. Commentary on individual stocks, sectors, and banks is general market observation, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security or to apply to any public issue.